There was great disappointment with the points earned by Ferrari at Imola. The Maranello team only scored 20 points (7 from Leclerc and 5 from Sainz in the Sprint Race, 8 from Leclerc in the race). Red Bull closed the gap in both the drivers' and constructors' standings, finding Verstappen 27 points behind Leclerc and the Milton Keynes-based team only 11 points behind Ferrari.
Why Ferrari failed to match Red Bull this weekend? On average Leclerc was 0.3 tenths slower than Verstappen in the race, especially with the intermediate and medium tyres, while with the softs at the end of the race, net of the mistake made by the Monegasque, Charles managed to keep a faster race pace than Perez . Ferrari's main problem this weekend was not finding the right set-up during Friday's FP1 in the wet. Due to the weekend with the Sprint Race, that session was essential for the teams to get the setup right, and Ferrari didn't succeed, because after that the Parc Fermé came into force and therefore the cars could no longer be modified. Ferrari set the suspension too stiff and the car too high off the ground, it lost a lot of downforce deriving from the bottom in fast corners, I am thinking for example of the Tamburello variant and the Piratella, but not only that, it lost a lot because the car was not stable on the curbs and therefore could not make the most of them. Leclerc made a mistake in trying to catch Perez, making too much use of the entire bollard at the first corner of the Variante Alta, unbalancing the car and touching the wall. That mistake is the result of Charles driving very close to the limit to try to recover in the driven part, because Ferrari loses too much from Red Bull on the straight, due to excessive porpoising and a lot of aerodynamic blocking of the rear wing. This is why Leclerc was unable to pass Perez and make that mistake, despite his telemetry being faster.
What changes are planned for Miami? Ferrari will bring a new rear wing which serves to reduce aerodynamic blockage and thus increase top speed. It won't be a change only for Miami, but it will be structural and will also be maintained later if it gives positive feedback from the riders. The modification of the rear wing is accompanied by a modification of the underbody, in particular of the diffuser area, to maintain the vertical thrust of the wing which is essential for finding downforce. In addition, the changes to the surface will be made to reduce porpoising which on a track like Miami, with 3 straights and a top speed of 320 km/h, is important not to have. Leclerc will probably mount the second power unit, which Sainz has already mounted at Imola, and this will allow him to use more aggressive engine mapping and recover some horsepower, an estimated 10hp.
Red Bull on the other hand at Imola brought half of the weight reduction update, the RB18 weighing 4kg less than in Australia. This allowed him to go 1 tenth faster per lap than Ferrari at Imola and to be faster on the straight and more competitive when changing direction. The second half of the weight reduction update is planned for Miami, we will see an RB18 with another 4kg less weight.
In conclusion, it is now difficult to establish who is the favorite for Miami between Ferrari and Red Bull, the track is certainly very different from Imola, the temperatures will be higher, the asphalt will be new and the curbs will be lower. The teams will have more time to test the different updates, as there is no Sprint Race, and we will see which car will adapt better to the new American track.
