It is the most repeated question after the end of the season: who could it be the surprise team of 2024? Will anyone be able to put the Milton Keynes team in difficulty or even outclass them?
Red Bull had a near-flawless season in 2023. If not for Carlos Sainz's victory in Singapore, Max's absolute dominance Verstappen would have marked the entire year. 2023 was characterized by reliability, performance and the unbeaten record of the Dutch driver, bringing Red Bull to total control of the races. It all worked out often predictable competitions and at times lacking the typical emotion of this sport.
Drivers, teams, enthusiasts, sponsors and even the commercial rights holders of Liberty Media, all fuel hope to attend a new season with a more open fight for the podium, which will light up in Bahrain next March. The answer to this question is not simple. The first clues will come from the presentations of the new cars in February and from the first tests on the track. In the meantime, we can build on what happened in 2023 and what it might suggest for 2024.
What to expect from Ferrari
After a difficult start, marked by a lack of consistency on the track and by an SF-23 performing well in qualifying but too demanding on the tyres, the Ferrari it has only demonstrated its potential on high-performance circuits such as Montreal, Singapore and Monza. However, thanks to the work carried out during the summer break, the team has made a significant step forward in the second half of 2023.
But what does Ferrari need in 2024? The stability of the regulations and of the Pirelli tires could favor a possible comeback, allowing us to overcome third place in the 2023 Constructors' Championship. This could correct previous mistakes and bring an evolution of the SF-23, helping drivers not only in qualifying but also to better manage their tires during races.
Thanks to the post-season tests, the Maranello team was able to to focus on the correlation between simulations and track, optimizing strategies and improving consistency on different tracks. Although there is talk of an optimization of the SF-23, Enrico Cardile, head of the chassis area, declared that he is working on a "totally new" project with 95% modifications compared to the already retired SF-23.
Ferrari was the only team capable of adding a touch of red in Singapore, in an all-blue calendar of victories. After a long period without titles, dating back to 2008, the team has the resources to be the surprise team of 2024.
And from McLaren?
At the start of the season, with just 17 points in the first eight races, few would have believed that the McLaren could become a real rival for Red Bull. With the introduction of significant upgrades to the Red Bull Ring in July, the Woking team experienced a marked improvement in 2023.
In the second half of the season, Lando Norris he managed to overtake, in terms of points, Red Bull's number two, Checo Pérez, placing the McLaren as the second team for points obtained after Red Bull, starting from the Austrian Grand Prix. The new wind tunnel it will represent a significant technological step forward from the Toyota Motorsport facility in Germany, which McLaren has relied on for more than a decade.
With Norris contractually bound until the end of 2025 and Oscar Piastres, the rookie of the year in 2023 who pretended not to be one with excellent results that led to a renewal until 2026, McLaren also has a solid driver duo to become a threat to Red Bull.
Focus on Mercedes
With a recent history of victories (15 out of 16 championships won between 2014 and 2021), Mercedes should be considered the team with the best chance of challenging Red Bull. This year too, the car has suffered from tire wear and inconsistencies, aggravated by the disparity in performance between Hamilton e Russell, third and eighth respectively in the drivers' standings, and which prevented Toto's team Wolff to compete at the desired level.
Mercedes introduced a new car concept with the Monaco Grand Prix update, but plans drastic changes in architecture for the 2024 model over the winter, aiming to take a big step forward.
Aston Martin: will it be the surprise team of the year?
If we talk about surprises, Aston Martin took center stage in the first part of 2023. With a Fernando Alonso ready to fight and with the motivation of a champion which, despite his 42 years, made him like a rookie on the podium. Mike Krack, CEO of Aston Martin, has announced that the Formula 1 car for 2024 will be an evolution of the AMR23, with the ambition of putting Red Bull in difficulty and, above all, of bringing Alonso to victory number 33.
Llongest season ever
Next year will be the longest with 24 races, including six sprint races such as Miami and Shanghai, who will be experimenting with this format for the first time. Consistent development in Milton Keynes, as demonstrated in 2023, does not guarantee victory if the competition has a similar advantage to that of the RB19. “This season, I doubt it will be repeated in my life“, declared the team principal, Christian Horner.
Whether Red Bull will be the surprise again in 2024, remaining invincible, or whether some other team will manage to beat it, we will only find out for sure from February.
