Imola is an "old school" track with a high aerodynamic load with many fast corners and only before turn 1 do you exceed 300 km/h, while there are 7 corners where speeds under 200 km/h are recorded at the apex. On paper it is a circuit favorable to Ferrari and very similar to Australia in some respects. There will be no major updates from the teams who will restart with the Melbourne configuration of the cars, thus accentuating the downforce on the front and rear wings. Ferrari will bring changes to the floor to further reduce porpoising, but will not use the new floor tested in free practice in Australia. In addition, I would like to remind you that Ferrari will improve the ERS system, the hybrid engine energy recharging system and will modify the MGU-K, control unit and batteries in Miami. Red Bull is likely to bring the update of the weight reduction of the car divided between Imola and Miami, therefore a reduction of 4kg for this weekend and another 4kg for the following grand prix. Mercedes will bring the first updates to Miami, but the substantial innovations, in particular to the power unit, will arrive in Barcelona. McLaren will have no updates, while Alpha Tauri and Alpine will bring aerodynamic changes for Imola.
Which team will be stronger at Imola? First of all, it must be emphasized that the weather is very uncertain. Expect rain on Friday, clear skies on Saturday and scattered showers on Sunday. The track will be slippery and the teams will only have the first 60-minute free practice to find the ideal setup for the weekend and test any updates to the car. In fact, parc fermé will be effective starting from Q1 which will be on the Friday after FP1, because the weekend program will be followed with the sprint race. It will certainly rain during FP1, so we'll need to see which car will have the most wet set-up (car more loaded, higher single-seater, stiffer suspension, etc.) and which one will have a more dry set-up.
From this point of view, Ferrari has the most advantage, generating a lot of downforce not only from the bottom of the car, but also from the top (front wing, rear wing, but above all hollow bellies). In this way, Ferrari can allow itself not to lift the car too much off the ground on Friday and set up a more dry set-up in anticipation of the sprint race and the race, so much so that they will still be able to generate enough downforce from the top of the car on Friday.
Conversely, Red Bull is more disadvantaged in the wet, as most of the downforce it generates comes from the bottom rather than the top. The bellies of the Milton Keynes car in fact exploit the outwash effect to divert the air flows outside or under the car. This system pays off a lot in dry conditions, but makes the car more understeer in the wet. So if Red Bull on Friday chooses to keep a car with a more dry set-up, in anticipation of Saturday and Sunday, it will go slower than Ferrari on Friday and could risk compromising qualifying. Obviously, this problem is not only found by Red Bull but by all cars with unloaded loads in the upper part of the car, such as Alpine and Haas for example, which will have many handling problems in the wet or, on the contrary, will set up too much in the wet which then doesn't work. to pay off in the sprint race and in the race. Mercedes like McLaren have the performance of the Mercedes power unit as their main problem and therefore will suffer less in the wet than in the dry.
In conclusion, I believe that this weekend will not give immediate answers on the values in the field on Friday, but we will have to wait for Saturday and Sunday to see who has chosen a more dry set-up and who has chosen a more wet set-up. Depending on the choice, the performance on the track during the race weekend will vary.
